A note of caution

Hyperbole is a often overused thing in sport and it appears as if the media are falling into the trap again. With the apparent decline of the Australian cricket side, many observers have been touting an England win in next summer’s Ashes series. Cricketing luminaries have been weighing in with their assorted two cents - Sir Ian Botham has gone so far as to publicly predict an easy win for England. Such enthusiasm for the contest is to be welcomed, but there’s comes a point where the noises and opinions become plain daft. This is one of those times.

How anyone can confidently predict a comfortable England series win is utterly foolish. Australia’s current ‘demise’ saw them lose their first test series since the fabled ‘05 Ashes as they went down, albeit fighting, 2-0 in India. Bearing in mind the fact that India is probably one of the hardest places to tour in the world, those who say that the Aussie defeat bodes well for England are getting confused. It is England themselves who play a test series in India next month and one can hardly assume they will fare any better than Australia did.

Admittedly, Australia have been feeling the effects of losing three of their greatest players ever in Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist. Behind the stumps, Brad Haddin has failed to convince. His performance in India both with the gloves and with the bat left much to be desired. Warne’s absence was always going to be felt the strongest and Brett Lee, Stuart Clark and Mitchell Johnson have struggled to replicate the accuracy and consistency of McGrath, although they have impressed.

A possible sign of how much in decline Australia are is their batting performance in the current home test series with New Zealand. The Indian defeat came with legitimate excuses but to crumble twice on a home ground against a mediocre New Zealand attack is a possible indication of how things are on the wane. However, to assume that this slump is permanent is a mistake. Australia are the masters of proving people wrong and one could easily see them coming back between now and next summer and becoming something like the team they were.

One must also take into account England at the moment. Their test form is currently inconsistent, notably the batting. Shackled by the likes of New Zealand and South Africa recently, one has to assume they will struggle against Australia’s pacers. Kevin Pietersen aside, England’s batsman seem to be going through a transitional period and it is hard to feel confident of a good score from them. Talented they may be but if they can’t beat South Africa at home, then why is everyone assuming they will beat Australia?

The other factor to bear in mind is the fact that it is the Ashes. These contests are rarely walkovers (ignore events last time out, please) and especially not in England’s favour. Even in 2005, when England thoroughly outplayed the Australians, the score was only 2-1 and not a single England fan or player had many nails left by the end of August. Bottom line - England may possibly be good and Australia may possibly be bad but ignore the spectacle of the Ashes at your peril.

Australia have plenty of time to improve. And for that matter, so do England. What is evident is that both teams have a lot to prove, both to the cricketing world and to themselves. Australia seem torn between clinging on to the past and wiping the slate clean with their new team. England appear to be… just torn. But one things for sure, England will unlikely be thinking that they will walk this series and fans and pundits shouldn’t be either.

It’s not just about current form, people. There’s a whole year to wait.